STOURHEAD NATIONAL TRUST.
By Christopher | January 17, 2010
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What a great spot Stourhead is near Warminster in Wiltshire!! Well worth a visit - although you will be lucky to see it under such wonderful snowy conditions such as my partner and I found when we were there last week!!
Christopher Macgowan
Topics: This and That | No Comments »
2010
By Christopher | January 4, 2010
I guess the easy bit is just to wish you a Happy New Year! The slightly more complicated bit is to forecast what sort of year I am happying you into.
Still recovering from the missed forecasts of 2009 most people are being pretty circumspect about the 2010 UK prospects so it seems appropriate to attempt some more specific forecasting rather than leaving everyone confused by platitudes and cautious legal language.
Frankly the forecasting task is made more difficult by the certainty of a general election but it seems 2010 will wretchedly see unemploymemt rising to 2.9 million and probably staying there. Inflation will hit 3.5% with interest rates remaining at or around 1% and largely ineffective on the real economy. And I can see just a 1% growth in the economy which is not exciting and, sadly, a fall in house prices of about 5%.
Car registrations are difficult to read because history cannot help with what will happen now the scrappage scheme is off and VAT is back to 17.5%. Whilst I am obviously outrageously biased towards the SMMT and its forecasts I am in fact forecasting a 1.8 million new car registrations figure for 2010.
So in summary a difficult year; the good news comes from the fact the automotive industry has suffered massive pain in 2009 and whilst likely to bump along in some pain in 2010 the worst is behind us. Saab and Alfa Romeo look to be the brands with a tough and uncertain future - Saab is well documented and Fiat’s Sergio Marchionne is the first man in a long time at Fiat to be thinking the unthinkable and seemingly wanting each brand to be profitable in its own right.
In wishing you a Happy New Year I am essentially forecasting an extremely difficult year and can only hope we have all made the really tough survival decisions in 2009 that will take us through 2010.
And my pet hate? Numerous experts saying things will never get back to where they were. Of course we will reap the benefit of our lower cost base but it is just plain old human nature that when things improve we start wanting to do more (good) and then start accepting costs back into the business model and getting fat again (BAD)!!
Christopher Macgowan
Topics: This and That | No Comments »
SAAB
By Christopher | December 20, 2009
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First of all a very Happy Christmas to you. My picture was taken this morning in my village and is of the school opposite which I live.
Could there be a last minute reprieve for SAAB? Looks like Spyker is coming back to GM with a revised package so the brand might survive after all.
The surprising thing about this global recession is that we have not seen more brands falling by the wayside. It just goes to prove how resilient these brands are and I certainly hope for the many people working within SAAB that it survives. The analytical side of me says however that the brand has been on the edge for many years - some would say GM never invested what was needed - and even if it does win a reprive - will we all be back here again in a year as the brand totters?
There is even talk of LDV surviving so it just goes to show there is no such thing as a no hoper.
Christopher Macgowan
Topics: Marketing | No Comments »
SCRAPPAGE TO LIVE ON?
By Christopher | December 1, 2009
Talking the other day informally to a group of manufacturers and dealers I am becoming more and more convinced that when the Peter Mandelson scrappage cash runs out in the UK we will see “Scrappage Scheme Extended” signs going up in hundreds of showrooms in response. The UK government is putting a very welcome £1000 into each deal and such has been the response I think tailor made self financed schemes will appear everywhere.
After all we are aware that a scrappage scheme is indeed like a drug - very difficult to get off once you get addicted. And £1000 can be dredged up from somewhere - and would offset the unwelcome VAT return to 17.5% from 15% on January 1st.
Christopher Macgowan
Topics: Marketing | No Comments »
SO GM KEEPS OPEL AND VAUXHALL AFTER ALL…..
By Christopher | November 11, 2009
In what can only be described as the mother and father of all U turns GM plans to stay in Europe with Opel and Vauxhall and scrap the planned Magna deal. Much confusion all round; re-structuring will still have to be carried out and money found in the UK, Germany and Spain to help it all along.
As a generality governments do not like surprises and it is obvious that Germany felt it had a high degree of control over the Magna deal and now looks to be back at the starting line in the new deal. Jobs being the watch word.
The saving grace in all this is that New GM has had the sense to temporarily transfer Nick Reilly from his present Far East duties to oversee the bedding down of Opel and Vauxhall after months of GM saying it did not want them. We all know Nick as an excellent operator who did his best to “save” the Luton car plant and looked surprised and in agony in equal measure on the day his then European bosses announced its closure. So there is a real chance that under his management he will make it work and maximise the alleged “improving market conditions” which made GM change its mind and keep the business.
In my opinion this global recession is forcing many companies to now do what they should have done before but which seemed a bit difficult in the good times so procrastination set in. So I close with a heretical thought. Possibly, just possibly, this is the moment to drop the Vauxhall brand name? A thousand reasons will be produced why this simply cannot be done - but perhaps this is the moment to do it - especially as the European operations are not directly governed by the US Asset Relief Programme bail out conditions.
Christopher Macgowan
Topics: Manufacturing, Marketing | No Comments »
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